{"id":12379,"date":"2026-03-27T12:27:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T11:27:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diverinvest.es\/?post_type=cartas-de-david&#038;p=12379"},"modified":"2026-03-30T11:47:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T09:47:37","slug":"carta-marzo-2026","status":"publish","type":"cartas-de-david","link":"https:\/\/diverinvest.es\/en\/cartas-de-david\/carta-marzo-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Carta marzo 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Trump ha perdido la guerra<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Querido amigo,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">El contexto geopol\u00edtico actual, marcado por la escalada del conflicto con Ir\u00e1n, introduce un alto nivel de incertidumbre en los mercados financieros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Aunque quiz\u00e1s es pronto para valorar su alcance real, todo parece indicar que ya est\u00e1 teniendo un impacto en la econom\u00eda mundial. Y, si el conflicto se alarga, este impacto puede ser cada vez m\u00e1s significativo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Ante este entorno, conviene recordar que, desde DiverInvest, ya en nuestra carta de diciembre del 2025 donde sintetiz\u00e1bamos nuestras previsiones para este a\u00f1o 2026 (titulada \u201cDe-risking\u201d), recomend\u00e1bamos: reducir el nivel de riesgo de las carteras, incrementar la liquidez y comprar d\u00f3lar. Esta recomendaci\u00f3n no respond\u00eda a un evento concreto, sino a la percepci\u00f3n de un entorno cada vez m\u00e1s complejo y dif\u00edcil de interpretar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">La evoluci\u00f3n reciente del mercado refuerza este posicionamiento, ya que nos encontramos en un entorno vol\u00e1til, con correcciones relevantes en algunos sectores, especialmente en tecnolog\u00eda, con una mayor sensibilidad a factores externos. En este contexto, la irrupci\u00f3n de un nuevo cisne negro en forma de conflicto geopol\u00edtico pone de manifiesto que cualquier evento inesperado puede alterar r\u00e1pidamente el comportamiento de los mercados. Precisamente por ello, creemos que mantener una postura prudente sigue siendo la decisi\u00f3n m\u00e1s adecuada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">De hecho, lo que tradicionalmente denomin\u00e1bamos cisnes negros, empieza a dejar de ser algo tan excepcional, dada la frecuencia con la que eventos inesperados est\u00e1n impactando en los mercados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">La evoluci\u00f3n del conflicto depender\u00e1, en gran medida, de las decisiones que tomen los l\u00edderes pol\u00edticos, especialmente de Donald Trump, cuya direcci\u00f3n y consistencia ser\u00e1n clave en las pr\u00f3ximas semanas y nos dar\u00e1n mayor visibilidad y capacidad para tomar decisiones de inversi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Por el momento creemos que es m\u00e1s prudente renunciar al primer rebote inicial ante una posible paz, que actuar condicionados por el ruido constante del mercado, las noticias y los tuits a cada minuto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Los mercados recuperar\u00e1n su tendencia positiva a medida que se reduzca la incertidumbre y se clarifique el escenario geopol\u00edtico. Sin embargo, el momento en que esto ocurra es incierto, por lo que consideramos que todav\u00eda no es el entorno adecuado para asumir riesgos adicionales. Ya habr\u00e1 oportunidades m\u00e1s adelante; por ahora, la disciplina sigue siendo clave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Estos d\u00edas hemos aprendido, definitiva y lamentablemente, que la renta fija ya no es un activo refugio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Perdonarme si mi tono suena pesimista, pero la situaci\u00f3n actual invita a seguir siendo prudentes. Mantenemos sin cambios nuestras principales recomendaciones: niveles elevados de liquidez, exposici\u00f3n al d\u00f3lar como \u00fanico refugio, inversi\u00f3n en bonos en d\u00f3lares con vencimientos largos con yields del 6% y renta variable de calidad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\">Un abrazo,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump ha perdido la guerra Querido amigo, El contexto geopol\u00edtico actual, marcado por la escalada del conflicto con Ir\u00e1n, introduce un alto nivel de incertidumbre en los mercados financieros. Aunque quiz\u00e1s es pronto para valorar su alcance real, todo parece indicar que ya est\u00e1 teniendo un impacto en la econom\u00eda mundial. Y, si el conflicto [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":12380,"parent":0,"template":"","categories":[],"class_list":["post-12379","cartas-de-david","type-cartas-de-david","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Carta marzo 2026 - DiverInvest<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/diverinvest.es\/en\/cartas-de-david\/carta-marzo-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Carta marzo 2026 - DiverInvest\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Trump ha perdido la guerra Querido amigo, El contexto geopol\u00edtico actual, marcado por la escalada del conflicto con Ir\u00e1n, introduce un alto nivel de incertidumbre en los mercados financieros. Aunque quiz\u00e1s es pronto para valorar su alcance real, todo parece indicar que ya est\u00e1 teniendo un impacto en la econom\u00eda mundial. 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