{"id":11449,"date":"2024-09-26T09:55:06","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T07:55:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diverinvest.es\/?post_type=cartas-de-david&#038;p=11449"},"modified":"2024-09-26T09:58:29","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T07:58:29","slug":"11449-2","status":"publish","type":"cartas-de-david","link":"https:\/\/diverinvest.es\/en\/cartas-de-david\/11449-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Carta septiembre 2024: Buenas noticias, la FED se equivoca"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Carta septiembre&nbsp;2024:&nbsp;Buenas noticas, la FED se equivoca<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Estimado\u00a0amigo,\u00a0<br><br>Yo no soy nadie para decir si la Fed se equivoca \u2026 o quiz\u00e1s s\u00ed.<br><br>La Reserva Federal ha bajado los tipos 50pb en su \u00faltima reuni\u00f3n de la semana pasada.<br><br>La econom\u00eda est\u00e1 creciendo al 3% y la inflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 algo m\u00e1s controlada, pero no del todo. Adem\u00e1s, los datos macroecon\u00f3micos no han variado casi nada en estos \u00faltimos meses y no justifican esta acci\u00f3n.<br><br>La reflexi\u00f3n aqu\u00ed es que todav\u00eda estamos en un escenario ideal, definido por una inflaci\u00f3n estabilizada y una econom\u00eda estadounidense en enfriamiento, pero a\u00fan fuerte.\u00a0Con lo cual, quiz\u00e1s estemos ante otro \u201cerror\u201d de la FED.<br><br>Si esto es as\u00ed, a medio plazo por lo menos esto son buenas noticias, ya que favorece de manera especial a todos los activos de &#8220;riesgo&#8221;.\u00a0<br><br>La idea es que un recorte agresivo de las tasas de la Fed ahora puede realmente interrumpir el mejor momento de todos los mundos en el que nos encontramos, en parte al impulsar un repunte de las acciones y conducir a una batalla a\u00fan m\u00e1s larga contra la inflaci\u00f3n. Es decir, de una manera ir\u00f3nica, un relajamiento agresivo en las tasas ahora podr\u00eda llevar el \u00edndice S&amp;P500 a unos niveles de 6000 puntos, antes de que la propia FED se d\u00e9 cuenta y rectifique su &#8220;error&#8221;.\u00a0<br><br>Esto ya ha pasado en el 2021. Con la inflaci\u00f3n disparada, la FED cometi\u00f3 un error hist\u00f3rico de considerarla &#8220;transitoria&#8221; y mantuvo los tipos intactos a niveles cercanos al 0%. Tard\u00f3 casi un a\u00f1o en empezar a subir los tipos y el resultado fue una subida del 28% en el \u00edndice S&amp;P500 a la cual sigui\u00f3 una correcci\u00f3n dolorosa en el 2022, sobre todo en la renta fija. A\u00f1o que muchos tardaremos en olvidar.\u00a0<br><br>\u00bfSe est\u00e1 volviendo a equivocar la FED?\u00a0<br>\u00a0<br>Si es cierto que est\u00e1n cometiendo un error al a\u00f1adir liquidez cuando la econom\u00eda sigue fuerte, es dif\u00edcil no pensar que los activos de riesgo seguir\u00e1n una senda alcista.<br><br>En la vida y m\u00e1s en los mercados financieros, al final del d\u00eda lo que realmente importa es tener claro las intenciones de la FED y no tanto si sus acciones son correctas o no. La realidad es que el mercado sigue a la FED m\u00e1s que a la econom\u00eda, por lo menos hasta que estos reconocen su error.<br><br>Mi recomendaci\u00f3n deja la cr\u00edtica de lado y a seguir disfrutando de las buenas noticias.\u00a0<br>\u00a0<br>Un abrazo,<br>David Levy<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Carta septiembre&nbsp;2024:&nbsp;Buenas noticas, la FED se equivoca Estimado\u00a0amigo,\u00a0 Yo no soy nadie para decir si la Fed se equivoca \u2026 o quiz\u00e1s s\u00ed. La Reserva Federal ha bajado los tipos 50pb en su \u00faltima reuni\u00f3n de la semana pasada. La econom\u00eda est\u00e1 creciendo al 3% y la inflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 algo m\u00e1s controlada, pero no del [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":11450,"parent":0,"template":"","categories":[173,174,175,176],"class_list":["post-11449","cartas-de-david","type-cartas-de-david","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cartas-2016","category-cartas-2017","category-cartas-2018","category-carta-2020"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Carta septiembre 2024: Buenas noticias, la FED se equivoca - DiverInvest<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/diverinvest.es\/en\/cartas-de-david\/11449-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Carta septiembre 2024: Buenas noticias, la FED se equivoca - DiverInvest\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Carta septiembre&nbsp;2024:&nbsp;Buenas noticas, la FED se equivoca Estimado\u00a0amigo,\u00a0 Yo no soy nadie para decir si la Fed se equivoca \u2026 o quiz\u00e1s s\u00ed. 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La Reserva Federal ha bajado los tipos 50pb en su \u00faltima reuni\u00f3n de la semana pasada. 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